Core Views
We maintain our view that the Tanzanian economy will expand by 6.2% in 2011 and 6.5% in 2012 in spite of rising inflation and a historically weak currency.
With inflation spiking higher, we believe that the Bank of Tanzania will begin to tighten monetary policy over the coming months with a particular focus on controlling money supply via the repo market and open market operations. We expect that the tightening will help to put a floor under the Tanzanian shilling but we do not believe at this stage that it will have a material impact on economic growth. The ...

Core View:
Blessed with favourable demographics, a wealth of natural resources, and a stable banking sector Brazil offers some of the most exciting investment opportunities globally.
With domestic demand surging and the export picture turning increasingly favourable amid strong demand for Brazil's commodities, the medium-term outlook is one of above-trend growth, with annual real GDP growth set to average 4.9% y-o-y between 2011 and 2015. Significant policy concerns remain: we question whether the government's inflation-cooling measures will be enough to bring down inflation ...

Core Views:
The uptick in crude oil prices since the start of 2011 will benefit Iran substantially, not only in terms of an improved growth outlook but also in terms of bolstering fiscal and balance of payments dynamics. The commencement of the subsidy reform programme has caused producer price inflation to more than double, but consumer price inflation has not risen nearly as much. We expect consumer price inflation to catch up in the coming months, and we forecast yearon- year CPI growth to average 25.0% in FY 2011/2012.
The removal of centrist and opposition politicians ...

Our latest interviews with in-country sources in Seoul, Daegu and Busan confirm that conditions within South Korea's commercial real estate sector have changed through the second half of 2010 but the general stability shown over the past few years remains in most sub-sectors.
The country sailed through the global financial crisis and the economy is growing well, perhaps a little too fast - inflation (CPI) level hit 4.5% y-o-y in February 2011, a 27-month high. Although rising global food and energy prices were the main drivers of the headline CPI figure, core inflation has also ...

The Challenge Of Rising Commodity Prices
A combination of improving economic growth, loose monetary policy, and supply-side considerations from tight commodity markets is boosting consumer prices worldwide. Inflationary pressures are being felt most keenly in emerging markets (EM), where policymakers will have to find a balance between tightening measures intended to contain prices on the one hand, and maintaining export competitiveness and sustaining growth on the other. Our core scenario is that headline inflation should not be so much of a worry as we approach H2 2011, as ...