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decline in tuberculosis mortality rates may indicate a new downward trend ... trends indicated. Forecast analysis of standardized tuberculosis mortality rates ... that tuberculosis mortality will acquire a new profile of declining rates (4.07% per year


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Table 4 Forecast evaluation for standardized tuberculosis mortality rates (all ... Paulo, Brazil, 199397 and 19982002. Forecast tuberculosis mortality rates Confidence interval (95%) Measured tuberculosis mortality rates Absolute percentage error ... cases previously classified as tuberculosis were reallocated to the mortality rates from indeterminate causes. The precariousness of this hypothesis has been


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Table 2 Timeseries for standardized tuberculosis mortality rates (all forms, natural log scale, per 100, 000 inhabitants), São Paulo, Brazil, 190097, and ARIMA (1 ... the respective mortality values, as presented in Tables 2 and 5. Log transformation also improves visual characterization of the stationary trend of values ... of the local trend of a strong and exponential increase in the rates. Analysis of data


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Table 3 ARIMA (1, 1, 1) estimates and closeness of fit indicators for standardized tuberculosis mortality rates (all forms, log scale, per 100, 000 inhabitants) in São Paulo, Brazil, 190097. Estimate Standard Error t p autoregressive term moving ... to the mortality rates from indeterminate causes. The precariousness of this hypothesis ... the virtual decrease of tuberculosis mortality during that period is reduced. According


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Table 5 Timeseries for tuberculosis mortality rates (pulmonary form, per 100, 000 inhabitants) stratified by gender and age group, São Paulo, Brazil, 190097. Ratios of yearly increase (percentage) and 95% confidence intervals were estimated ... definite impact on the persistently high mortality rates throughout the first half of the century (Antunes, 1998). However, beginning in the mid1930s ... high tuberculosis rates in the city of São Paulo was also the subject of some


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Table 1 Timeseries analysis for standardized tuberculosis mortality rates (all forms, linear scale, per 100, 000 inhabitants) in São Paulo, Brazil, 190097. Generalized least squares regression estimates. Period Trend stationary stationary ... tion of the local trend of a strong and exponential increase in the rates. Analysis of data in Tables 1 and 2 enhances the historical characterization of the disease’s magnitude in the city and fosters an interesting discussion with medical


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rates definite impact on the persistently high mortality rates throughout the first half of the century (Antunes, 1998). However, beginning in the mid1930s ... high tuberculosis rates in the city of São Paulo was also the subject of some


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1999 TUBERCULOSIS IN THE 2Oth CENTURY rates definite impact on the persistently high mortality rates throughout the first half of the century (Antunes, 1998 ... rates > 75 age group


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Bulletin of the World Health Organization  Interventions to reduce tuberculosis mortality and transmission in low and middleincome countries ... with high rates of case detection and cure of smearpositive tuberculosis, and that, for each tuberculosis case prevented, 0.1 death is prevented. Preventive therapy in HIV ... 07 tuberculosis cases and 0.007 tuberculosis deaths. In adults without HIV infection who


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Bulletin of the World Health Organization  Interventions to reduce tuberculosis mortality and transmission in low and middleincome countries ... is simplified here as 1failure rate. Deaths are not considered to be programme failures ... that, for a programme with a cure rate of less than 50%, tuberculosis transmission would increase

